Columbia University has fallen

[FlyersFan]

There were 695 people killed outright in the October 7 raid.

Israel says 1200 were killed by the terrorist attack.

Israeli response resulted in (count is ongoing) has been to kill 32,000 people 

Claims Hamas.  Which lies.  

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals.  And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.  Charts and graphs at the links. 

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -  

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less."  "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

YES, noncombatants have died in Gaza.  But they die in every war.  What we DO know is that the numbers Hamas have given are fake.  The true number will never be known.  

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ... 

World War II - 50,000,000 Dead

World War I - 40,000,000 Dead

Vietnam War - 1,353,000 Dead

Korea War - 525,000 Dead, over 1 Million Missing

Iraq War - Over 1 Million Associated Deaths

Iran/Iraq War - 500,000 Iraqi dead and 750,000 Iranian dead

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