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+--- Thread: International sactions against Russia failing (/Thread-International-sactions-against-Russia-failing)
International sactions against Russia failing - xpert11 - 05-04-2024
"Russia’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023 and is projected to expand by over 3 per cent in 2024."
Much of this success relies on the expansion of the military-industrial complex. Russia has bolstered fiscal revenues and used them to stimulate the domestic economy. Export controls have not yet resulted in decisive choke points or disruptions in supply chains.
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1786443385043038349
[Quotes from the source article appear in that Twitter thread.]
An argument existed for placing international sanctions against Russian energy exports. However, that project was feasible over a ten-year timeline and was not a direct measure to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine will be decided on battlefields, with logistics and ending the patterns of static land warfare and limited counterattacks. Returning to battlefield mobility and breaking the back of enemy forces is yet to occur. Granted, a Lend-Lease arrangement would have been confined to supplying equipment and not restoring manoeuvre.
The international policymakers whose religious type belief in sanctions replaced material aid to Ukraine are outright fools. The U.S. never leveraged their commitment to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines against that country supplying more than token assistance to Ukraine.
Another issue is the U.S.-led sanctions regime and limited aid to Ukraine are in a policy vacuum. I don't think there is a "good outcome" from the war in Ukraine. The defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine might trigger unintended consequences. A second Russian Civil War or extreme Russian political instability would be disastrous.
Alternately, Russia returns to launch another onslaught against Ukraine after 6 - 10 years.
However, a peace deal involving Ukraine ceding territory to Russia invites further trouble. Russia would be emboldened to resume its war against NATO or make a move against the Baltic States, which are NATO members.
Moreover, none of those matters appear to influence the International community's approach to Ukraine. Threading the needle to argue for the destruction of Russian forces in Ukraine while reducing the risk of future wars would have been extremely tough but a step forward for policymakers.
RE: International sactions against Russia failing - Maxmars - 05-04-2024
I remember when I was very young, there was no actual talk of something called "economic warfare." I'm sure the leaders of the world knew of the idea, perhaps even waged it. But it wasn't a thing that was spoken of openly. War was fought with people and things... bullets and bombs. Things that need to be made. Making things to unmake other things, I thought.
But having lived in the real world as an adult now, I actually participated in a different war. Over time, attrition and hubris left the Soviet Union a brittle husk of her former self. So brittle, that she broken into pieces.
I think the Russia of today is driven by a different set of animals entirely, while we in the West are now all subjects of crafted "appearances." The "show" we see by the media under the production of the various governments is a 'flavored' reality. Too many secrets, too much "inconvenient truth." Economic sanctions were like throwing stinky rotten fruit at each other... for show. No one was ever going to reconcile this matter with economics... and I'm surprised they pretended they thought it would... the talking heads, I mean. It got clicks and consumed bandwidth though... engendered "funding" for 'causes'... they sure made a lot of money selling that fantasy.
I feel deeply for the poor innocent souls in Ukraine, and the dutiful Russian soldiers who are the grist for the mill of "political" contention. Too many have died, and too many suffer.
Ukraine, like Afghanistan, are lusted after for things that they do or things that they have. And like Afghanistan, Ukraine has too many that 'value' that over over the people that live there. "Identities" are the excuse for the hate and fear that serves those lustful few who have the tools and means to pursue them. It is immensely sad.
It seems that we in the West are consumed by the appearances crafted for our consumption, because most of us consume whatever appearances are crafted without examining what they really are... or who is doing the crafting, or why.
Isn't it odd that the "International" community and what they 'think,' are more important than the people who live, suffer, and die in these places? Or is that also, just an appearance?
RE: International sactions against Russia failing - Notably0ffbeat - 09-01-2024
I personally can't trust either view enough to pick a side. Although I tend to think we should stay out of it, America should not be involved. Both sides want freedom and security for their people. I truly believe most of the motivation for war is profit, as has it been through our time.
"War. War never changes... The Romans waged war to gather slaves and wealth. Spain built an empire from its lust for gold and territory. Hitler shaped a battered Germany into an economic superpower." -fallout
RE: International sactions against Russia failing - Notably0ffbeat - 09-04-2024
I do find it pretty fascinating that the sanctions let to the development of Russian cpu designs. They actually have came along way since the sanctions started. Their first chip was equivalent of a Pentium era cpu while there latest design is now only about 10 years behind competition performance wise.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russian-cpu-benchmarked-against-intel-huawei-chips
Russia like the rest of the world still needs the cpu to be manufactured elsewhere. Taiwan being the major chip manufacturer. Still waiting for the war of the chips to start, as computations are now a resource highly in demand and few places in the world are capable of providing it.
RE: International sactions against Russia failing - Kurokage - 10-04-2024
(09-04-2024, 04:55 PM)Notably0ffbeat Wrote: I do find it pretty fascinating that the sanctions let to the development of Russian cpu designs. They actually have came along way since the sanctions started. Their first chip was equivalent of a Pentium era cpu while there latest design is now only about 10 years behind competition performance wise.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russian-cpu-benchmarked-against-intel-huawei-chips
Russia like the rest of the world still needs the cpu to be manufactured elsewhere. Taiwan being the major chip manufacturer. Still waiting for the war of the chips to start, as computations are now a resource highly in demand and few places in the world are capable of providing it.
It's more like 30 years and are still woefully way behind at 350nm whilst the west is down to 2nm...
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/russia-develops-its-first-lithography-tool-outdated-by-30-years-from-day-one
Quote:29 May 2024
Russia develops its first chipmaking tool — outdated by 30 years from day one.
The first Russian photolithography tool, capable of producing chips with a 350 nm process technology or thicker, has been built in Russia and is undergoing testing in Zelenograd. This mature technology is currently used for some automotive and power chips, though it could also be used for military equipment. We estimate that the new piece of equipment is about 30 years behind the industry.
"We assembled and made the first domestic lithographic scanner," Vasily Shpak, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia, told TASS. "It is currently undergoing testing as part of the technological line in Zelenograd."
