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+--- Thread: An incredible coincidence or worse is Russia pushing Iran's Buttons (/Thread-An-incredible-coincidence-or-worse-is-Russia-pushing-Iran-s-Buttons)
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RE: An incredible coincidence or worse is Russia pushing Iran's Buttons - putnam6 - 01-04-2024
(01-04-2024, 03:46 PM)Blaine91555 Wrote: It appears that ISIS has taken responsibility. I've got to say that surprised me.
ISIS claims responsibility...
Me too, who knows though. LOL Iran media still says it's Israel and the US. It's unlikely but....
(01-04-2024, 12:12 PM)Byrd Wrote: If we follow the motto of this board, we should take care to establish the facts before announcing conclusions. Speculation's fun, but can point to the wrong person and adds to the noise in the information environment. None of us here has the security clearances and the political and military contacts (and language skills in Hebrew and Arabic) to do a truly excellent investigation.
Plus, it's early days. A lot of the investigating is still ongoing.
And that's why I said "hold the horses! Don't decide on a Bad Guy just yet!"
we are just discussing this, we aren't establishing US policy unless AI is grabbing a conglomerate of opinions and sources and our leaders are loading the information into a couple of Cray computers. Even then we got what one hundred 2 hundred DI members among the millions of various opinions. Besides I like discussing early on, that way when the facts hit we can see who was more accurate, and therefore adds a tad bit of DI board cred LOL.
But who am I, I thought they would just shut down the country for 4-6 weeks, and then we would be back to normal.
![[Image: dumb-and-dumber-samsonite.gif]](https://media1.tenor.com/m/JxhSGIzFrNwAAAAd/dumb-and-dumber-samsonite.gif)
RE: An incredible coincidence or worse is Russia pushing Iran's Buttons - Byrd - 01-05-2024
Turns out that this (sort of) has its roots in the Shia-Sunni conflict... at least to the point where ISIS is taking advantage of the Sunni disaffection with their power (lack of) in the government and gaining their support.
The Shia are more conservative (traditionalist) - favoring the disenfranchisement of women, the hijab and so on and so forth.
Vox has a very readable article about this if you'd like to know more: https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/17995846/the-conflict-between-iraqi-sunnis-and-shias-sustains-isis
RE: An incredible coincidence or worse is Russia pushing Iran's Buttons - putnam6 - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 07:34 PM)Byrd Wrote: Turns out that this (sort of) has its roots in the Shia-Sunni conflict... at least to the point where ISIS is taking advantage of the Sunni disaffection with their power (lack of) in the government and gaining their support.
The Shia are more conservative (traditionalist) - favoring the disenfranchisement of women, the hijab and so on and so forth.
Vox has a very readable article about this if you'd like to know more: https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/17995846/the-conflict-between-iraqi-sunnis-and-shias-sustains-isis
Absolutely thanx I can't find enough good sources and Im pretty much follow too much Im on Discord a lot. NGL the age diff makes convos sus sometimes but good info, and it's mostly quick and self-vetted. LOL but they made fun of me when I forgot who Pikachu was, my daughters would have been so embarrassed.
... Vox sometimes has phenomenal articles and sometimes they are less than appealing.
Iran is publically saying it's still Israel and America, which I suppose there is an outside chance some manipulation or involvement is leading to an ISIs attack, but Id say less than 5% chance. This is organic and that means watch a clamp down internally, but hopefully it makes them less likely tp want to actively go to war.
Im still amazed it hasn't
Dug the article pretty much the situation as Ive heard in bits and pieces. It was an excellent appetizer soup and salad
This is the entree..
https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/isis
RE: An incredible coincidence or worse is Russia pushing Iran's Buttons - Byrd - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 10:39 PM)putnam6 Wrote: Iran is publically saying it's still Israel and America, which I suppose there is an outside chance some manipulation or involvement is leading to an ISIs attack, but Id say less than 5% chance. This is organic and that means watch a clamp down internally, but hopefully it makes them less likely tp want to actively go to war.
This is the entree..
https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/isis
Iran's trying to blame everything on us and Israel... and in a sense, this is/was true since we made some bad choices in who we supported with arms, troops, and money. However, there's equal risks in NOT doing anything.
...darned if you do, darned if you don't.
Good article on ISIS. By the way, there's some additional social things that you might not have considered which has to do with women and families. Because there's a huge gap wealth, only really wealthy men can afford more than one wife (the lesser wives are often treated very poorly). This means fewer men can afford to be married... and you'll notice that most of the bombers do not have wives and children. They're single.
The traditionalists push for restrictions on women so that they will end up as "obedient wives" no matter how badly they're treated. And women turn into commodities - not really wanted, but sellable to bachelors. This, of course, only works as long as the women are coerced into compliance.
This ALSO played out (for reference) in some of the polygamist compounds here in the US... the big cheeses want all the women, so they kick the male children (who are badly educated and not at all prepared for the modern world) out of the compound.
So in a way, suicide bombers are a win-win-win for them. Kill and terrorize a population, point fingers at convenient targets, cut down the number of available young men.
Poisonous social situation.
