U.S. Economy Grows 4.3%​ in Q3 2025, Fastest in Two Years

[EXETER]

Are people spending more?

Or have prices on everyday products risen so high it's presenting a false narrative?

I have seen a couple of criticisms of this 4.3% number.  First, like all numbers put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the numbers that come out in the first months after the end of the quarter are estimates (i.e., guesses) based on the data they have collected up to that point in time.  It is well known that the full data set takes time to trickle in and very often modifies the estimate later on.  As a control system engineer, this doesn't particularly bother me, since it is basically just a self-correcting, adaptive algorithm that should eventually converge to the correct answer, assuming that the data is not being deliberately manipulated.  But in August, Trump fired the then director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because she was following this algorithm that has been used for decades and gave Trump numbers he didn't like.  So this most recent estimate of GDP is based in part on inflation data supplied by the new and improved management at BLS.  That leads to the obvious suspicion that the data is being deliberately manipulated to provide numbers that Trump likes better.  There is also the fact that the GDP estimate is mathematically connected to the inflation estimate in such a way that if the inflation rate goes up, the GDP goes down. And there is a month and a half worth of inflation data missing because of the government shutdown.  One estimate says that if the inflation rate turns out to be 1.5% higher than the current estimate of 2.7% then the GDP estimate for Q3 goes down to 2.8%.  And the real numbers for  inflation probably won't be known accurately until April of 2026.

So stay tuned.

[ANNEE]

I have seen a couple of criticisms of this 4.3% number.  First, like all numbers put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the numbers that come out in the first months after the end of the quarter are estimates (i.e., guesses) based on the data they have collected up to that point in time.  It is well known that the full data set takes time to trickle in and very often modifies the estimate later on.  As a control system engineer, this doesn't particularly bother me, since it is basically just a self-correcting, adaptive algorithm that should eventually converge to the correct answer, assuming that the data is not being deliberately manipulated.  But in August, Trump fired the then director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because she was following this algorithm that has been used for decades and gave Trump numbers he didn't like.  So this most recent estimate of GDP is based in part on inflation data supplied by the new and improved management at BLS.  That leads to the obvious suspicion that the data is being deliberately manipulated to provide numbers that Trump likes better.  There is also the fact that the GDP estimate is mathematically connected to the inflation estimate in such a way that if the inflation rate goes up, the GDP goes down. And there is a month and a half worth of inflation data missing because of the government shutdown.  One estimate says that if the inflation rate turns out to be 1.5% higher than the current estimate of 2.7% then the GDP estimate for Q3 goes down to 2.8%.  And the real numbers for  inflation probably won't be known accurately until April of 2026.

So stay tuned.

Thank you. 

WHY? Is always a fair question.

Anyone can find their "slant" on the internet to push the narrative they've chosen.

Backing it up with "complete" facts is a different story.

[putnam6]

I have seen a couple of criticisms of this 4.3% number.  First, like all numbers put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the numbers that come out in the first months after the end of the quarter are estimates (i.e., guesses) based on the data they have collected up to that point in time.  It is well known that the full data set takes time to trickle in and very often modifies the estimate later on.  As a control system engineer, this doesn't particularly bother me, since it is basically just a self-correcting, adaptive algorithm that should eventually converge to the correct answer, assuming that the data is not being deliberately manipulated.  But in August, Trump fired the then director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because she was following this algorithm that has been used for decades and gave Trump numbers he didn't like.  So this most recent estimate of GDP is based in part on inflation data supplied by the new and improved management at BLS.  That leads to the obvious suspicion that the data is being deliberately manipulated to provide numbers that Trump likes better.  There is also the fact that the GDP estimate is mathematically connected to the inflation estimate in such a way that if the inflation rate goes up, the GDP goes down. And there is a month and a half worth of inflation data missing because of the government shutdown.  One estimate says that if the inflation rate turns out to be 1.5% higher than the current estimate of 2.7% then the GDP estimate for Q3 goes down to 2.8%.  And the real numbers for  inflation probably won't be known accurately until April of 2026.

So stay tuned.

And there's nothing unusual about that at all, every administration wants the best looking PRELIMINARY numbers and usually we know the previous year by the end of March.

IN fact numbers are routinely adjusted; the sheer numbers and sectors involved, it's never been a precise accounting by EOM, it's always a work in progress till the preceding EOQ

Whatever it is, it's damn far from the EOY recession many here predicted.

[Vermilion]

You’re going to have to realize sooner or later that a Trump economy rocks.

Biden took the easy way and bloated the fed, just like most democrats.

Smaller fed, larger private sector is the way.

[putnam6]

Thank you. 

WHY? Is always a fair question.

Anyone can find their "slant" on the internet to push the narrative they've chosen.

Backing it up with "complete" facts is a different story.

Merry Christmas Annee



Care to back up your speculative left-slanted economy numbers when you get a chance?

[ANNEE]

Merry Christmas Annee


Care to back up your speculative left-slanted economy numbers when you get a chance?

Merry Christmas to you. 

Show me where I posted that.

[putnam6]

Merry Christmas to you. 

Show me where I posted that.

It's almost like you don't want a good economy... anecdotally 31% is the largest YTY increase we have had in 10 years, 

You suggested ..
 

 
Anyone can find their "slant" on the internet to push the narrative they've chosen.
 
Backing it up with "complete" facts is a different story.

 
I COUNTER 
 
And there's nothing unusual about that at all, every administration wants the best looking PRELIMINARY numbers and usually we know the previous year by the end of March.
 
IN fact numbers are routinely adjusted; the sheer numbers and sectors involved, it's never been a precise accounting by EOM, it's always a work in progress till the preceding EOQ
 
Whatever margin for "error" may be its.5-.7 points tops , it's damn far from the EOY recession many here predicted after the Trumps gonna start a depression, terrible tariff trouble of April...

The left has cried wolf so many times about Trump that they have no credibility...

PS. if you want to know how I know this just ask and I'll tell you...

[ANNEE]

It's almost like you don't want a good economy... anecdotally 31% is the largest YTY increase we have had in 10 years, 

You suggested ..
 
 
I COUNTER 
 
And there's nothing unusual about that at all, every administration wants the best looking PRELIMINARY numbers and usually we know the previous year by the end of March.
 
IN fact numbers are routinely adjusted; the sheer numbers and sectors involved, it's never been a precise accounting by EOM, it's always a work in progress till the preceding EOQ
 
Whatever margin for "error" it is, it's damn far from the EOY recession many here predicted after the terrible tariff trouble of April...


[Video: https://youtu.be/CDl9ZMfj6aE?si=i5yA4c9s1JOEJMH7]

So, I didn't actually state my opinion.

You are assuming I took a strong position.

I questioned.

[putnam6]

Economic numbers are always in flux...  

Case in point...

However, once the numbers are reconciled, if they are revised downward by 0.5 points or more, I won't post for a month...

And I'll retire the "One Trick Pony" response schtick. 


 

 

Reuters

@Reuters
·
3m

China's statistics bureau revises down 2024 final GDP http://reut.rs/4pVYij2

Sounds like excellent economic news for Tennessee 
 

Reuters
@Reuters
·
1m
Korea Zinc confirms payment completion for 2.85 trillion won new shares issuance

http://reut.rs/4b5GKw4

 

• Korea Zinc, South Korea's largest zinc producer, completed payment for issuing new shares worth 2.85 trillion won ($1.95 billion) to Crucible JV, a U.S. government-linked venture, marking a key step in a $7.4 billion Tennessee smelter project.
  
• The deal faced opposition from shareholder Youngpoong and private equity firm MBK Partners, who sought a court injunction to block it over concerns of undervaluation, but Seoul's Central District Court rejected the bid on December 24, 2025.
  
• This issuance grants Crucible JV approximately 10% ownership in Korea Zinc, bolstering U.S. supply chain security for critical minerals amid ongoing internal corporate disputes at the company.
  

[quintessentone]

So all these major media sources were lied too, or are they just willingly supporting incorrect numbers? 

One can say their livelihoods' numbers are down, but this is the same  way we've down our inflation indicators every month for years

So is somebody telling them to skew them?

It's not as if these numbers aren't audited? 

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...c11b10.jpg]

It depends on where these news media platforms got their information from, unlikely they did any independent investigative work beyond phoning someone at e a government agency, such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Most of the main stream media seem to have become government shills and/or lazy and/or don't want a lawsuit, so they just take the easy road.