This is the first time Ive seen this prediction

[putnam6]

This is the first time Ive seen this prediction everywhere else, believe it will be a cornflower blue tidal surge....

For it to be this large with such a divided population, and an unpopular war

Polymarket odds are wrong relatively infrequently—typically 3-10% of the time for the leading outcome, depending on the timeframe—but this depends on how you define "wrong." 
Key Metrics on Accuracy
Prediction markets like Polymarket provide probabilities, not certainties. A market at 70% implies a 30% chance of being "wrong," but the platform as a whole is well-calibrated and often outperforms polls or experts. 

• "Accuracy" here usually means: How often the favored outcome (the one trading above 50%) correctly resolves. This is the metric Polymarket and analysts like Alex McCullough (Dune dashboard) commonly report.
  • 4 hours before resolution: ~96.7% accurate.
    
  • 12 hours: ~96.4%.
    
  • 1 day: ~95.8%.
    
  • 1 week: ~94%.
    
  • 1 month: ~90.4%. 
    
• Brier scores (a proper probabilistic scoring rule; lower is better, where 0 is perfect and 1 is worst): Around 0.06–0.19 overall, which is excellent. Highly liquid markets (e.g., >$1M volume) often score even better (~0.02–0.03 near resolution). A score below 0.125 is considered good. 
  
• Broader analyses across thousands of resolved markets (2023–2026) report:
  • Overall "correct leading outcome" rates of ~73–82% in some studies (heavily influenced by many low-probability "No" resolutions). 
    
  • Strong calibration: Markets priced at e.g. 80–90% tend to resolve correctly close to that rate. 
    

Important Nuances and Biases

• Many markets are lopsided: ~74% resolve "No" vs. ~26% "Yes," due to lots of long-shot "Yes" markets (e.g., fringe political or event outcomes). These boost headline accuracy because low-probability events usually don't happen. 
  
• Slight overconfidence bias: Markets often slightly overprice "Yes" outcomes (events happen less often than priced, across most probability buckets). This is common in prediction markets. 
  
• Accuracy improves closer to resolution as information arrives and liquidity concentrates. Early prices can be noisier.
  
• Domain variation: Better on high-stakes politics/elections; more variable on sports, crypto prices, or niche events. Some studies note underconfidence in politics (prices too close to 50%) at longer horizons. 
  
• Not infallible: There are notable misses (e.g., certain elections or events), and a Vanderbilt study found lower hit rates in one comparison (~67%). Superforecasters sometimes beat it on specific topics like central bank decisions. 
  

Why Polymarket Performs Well Overall
Financial incentives align participants toward accuracy (skin in the game), and a small number of informed traders (~3% in one analysis) drive most price discovery. Liquidity helps: bigger-volume markets are sharper. 
In short, treat Polymarket probabilities as reliable but not perfect forecasts—especially strong near event resolution and on liquid markets. They're often among the best public aggregators of information, beating many polls, but surprises happen roughly as often as the implied probabilities suggest. For the latest, check Polymarket's accuracy page or Dune dashboards.

[worldstarcountry]

Fancy that. So we stick with whores for Israel. However, I would prefer that  over the whores for the EU and China, who for whatever depraved reason insist on sacrificing whole generations of children to homosexual cross dressing pedophiles. Probably their evil secret global domination plan to disarm and castrate the USA using culture warfare.

Good thing it got figured out before its too late, I think.

[quintessentone]

This is the first time Ive seen this prediction everywhere else, believe it will be a cornflower blue tidal surge....

For it to be this large with such a divided population, and an unpopular war

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...18ab4.jpeg]

Provide a source so I can look it over.

[DBCowboy]

This is the first time Ive seen this prediction everywhere else, believe it will be a cornflower blue tidal surge....

For it to be this large with such a divided population, and an unpopular war

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...18ab4.jpeg]

If there is ANY policy by the democrats, it's open borders, defunding cops, higher taxes, appeasement foreign policy, decriminalizing crime, banning guns, socialized medicine.

HAs Trump been perfect?

Nope.

But we have senate and house republicans AND democrats fighting any meaningful beneficial change.

[IDELB2006]

Provide a source so I can look it over.

​​​​​​Link
Its polymarket. 
I don't believe the democrats ever had a good chance at the senate. They may have gone up slightly during the Iron conflict.

Link 2

Polymarket has the chances of democrats taking the House at 73%

[DBCowboy]

​​​​​​Link
Its polymarket. 
I don't believe the democrats ever had a good chance at the senate. They may have gone up slightly during the Iron conflict.

Link 2

Polymarket has the chances of democrats taking the House at 73%

The impeachment hearing will be fun to watch.

Buying popcorn. . . .  ​​​​​​​

[IDELB2006]

The impeachment hearing will be fun to watch.

Buying popcorn. . . . 

I am hoping the first impeachment roots out who is enriching themselves to the tune of billions while the military is making sacrifices in the middle east.

​​​​​​​It should be easy to following the money.

[quintessentone]

​​​​​​Link
Its polymarket. 
I don't believe the democrats ever had a good chance at the senate. They may have gone up slightly during the Iron conflict.

Link 2

Polymarket has the chances of democrats taking the House at 73%

Other predictions are either/or with many prediction companies stating that odds are based on which GOP-held states the Dems can flip.. They supposedly need to flip only four, primarily Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas or Iowa. The source below shows Trump's disapproval ratings in each state, so if I had to bet, I would bet that the Senate will be flipped to the Dems.

Trump: Job approval/disapproval:

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...e&map=true

Country heading in right/wrong direction:

https://civiqs.com/results/track_country...tions=true

[IDELB2006]

Other predictions are either/or with many prediction companies stating that odds are based on which GOP-held states the Dems can flip.. They supposedly need to flip only four, primarily Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas or Iowa. The source below shows Trump's disapproval ratings in each state, so if I had to bet, I would bet that the Senate will be flipped to the Dems.

Trump: Job approval/disapproval:

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...e&map=true

Country heading in right/wrong direction:

https://civiqs.com/results/track_country...tions=true

Anything is possible.  November is months away, and Americans have short memories.

[DBCowboy]

Well, the democrats are running an actual nazi in the Northeast for senate, so anything is possible.