Snow Storm Forecast Totals

[FlyersFan]

I say this all the time ... I don't know how weathermen can stay employed.

A snow storm coming up for Sunday/Monday in my area (Wilmington Delaware).

Depending on where you look ... the forecast is 1-3 inches, 2-4 inches, 3-5 inches, 3-6 inches, 5-9 inches, 5-10 inches, 6-12 inches.

All these meteorologists are getting the same information from the same sources.   

And yet their storm totals predicted don't even come close to each other, and when put together, come to a conclusion of us getting anywhere from 1-12 inches.  

That's ridiculous.  You can't prepare for that.

[ArMaP]

One thing I have learned a long time ago is not to trust US weather predictions. Sometimes I even think those predictions are not made by meteorologists but by people that do not really understand a thing about meteorology.

Personally, I only look at weather predictions (for Portugal) from the official Portuguese weather agency.

[Sirius]

Just look at the models yourself, it's not complicated.  It's like a handful of things you need to learn.

There are different models that work at different resolutions, like the size of the square it uses to look at land differs.  25km x25km might sound tiny if you look at the map but that is big enough to miss a mountain or other terrain and would make the prediction off.

The free models normally has low res, most of them is only accurate 3 days ahead.

The models also are biased to predict bad weather, it's kinda their purpose.


edit: the US has the best models, really amazing stuff.

[FlyersFan]

So the storm is slowing down now.   Supposedly a few hours of the 'warning' left but it is barely coming down.  We have about an inch of snow on the ground.  Barely covering the grass.   The meteorologists, once again, got the prediction wrong.   REALLY wrong.

[ArMaP]

The main problem with weather prediction is that the weather doesn't stop after the prediction and can change and be affected by several factors.