More than 50 countries have reached out to the President to begin tariff negotiations

[putnam6]

More than 50 countries have reached out to the president to begin tariff negotiations.
Hearing so many different explanations of what will happen on Monday, tariffs could hurt some of Congress's portfolios increases

Im worried for them how will they survive on just a paycheck?

So do we have a market crash or not?  Just from what Ive read so far we are going to take a huge hit, the question is it a crash? 

Call it?



PS Let's try and keep this financial we have other threads on the emotions and feelings



 

Predicting whether the stock market will crash due to new tariffs is inherently uncertain, as it depends on a complex interplay of economic factors, investor sentiment, and policy responses. However, I can provide an informed perspective based on current trends and historical patterns.
New tariffs, especially if broad and significant, can disrupt global trade, increase costs for businesses, and fuel inflation, all of which tend to unsettle markets. For instance, tariffs imposed in early 2025 have already sparked volatility, with reports indicating sharp declines in major U.S. indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, alongside trillions in lost market value. Investors appear worried about potential retaliation from trading partners, supply chain disruptions, and a possible slide into recession—fears that have driven sell-offs and pushed Wall Street's "fear gauge" (the VIX) to elevated levels.
Historically, trade wars have rattled markets but don’t always lead to a full crash. During Trump’s first term, tariffs in 2018-2019 caused the S&P 500 to drop around 5-7% on key announcement days, yet the market recovered over time as uncertainty eased. A crash—typically defined as a sudden, severe drop of 20% or more—often requires a broader catalyst, like a recession or systemic financial shock. Current data suggests the U.S. economy is still growing, with solid job reports tempering some recession fears, though growth forecasts are dimming.
Wall Street’s reaction so far shows a mix of panic and adjustment. Some analysts argue the market hasn’t fully priced in the worst-case scenarios, with valuations still high despite recent losses. Others see tariffs as a negotiation tactic, suggesting that if they’re scaled back, the damage could be limited. Goldman Sachs, for example, estimates that a 5% tariff hike might shave 1-2% off S&P 500 earnings, a hit but not a collapse. However, if retaliatory tariffs escalate globally and economic growth stalls, the risk of a deeper downturn grows—Bank of America has floated a possible S&P 500 drop to 5,000 in a severe scenario, about 8% below early April 2025 levels.
Sentiment on platforms like X reflects growing unease, with posts highlighting trillion-dollar market cap losses and warnings of a correction. Yet, history also shows markets can rebound from tariff-induced dips if investors spot buying opportunities or if the Federal Reserve steps in with rate cuts—something traders are increasingly betting on.
So, will it crash? There’s no definitive yes or no. Tariffs are a serious headwind, and the market’s already shaky—down significantly from peaks earlier in 2025. A full crash isn’t guaranteed unless broader economic weakness kicks in, but the risk is higher than it was a few months ago. Investors might brace for more volatility, but calling it a crash now is speculative. It hinges on how this trade war plays out.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

Yeah, you know what?

Just freaking once, could things not work out in some way that makes all critics look simplistic and unable to see the big picture?

It's kinda hard to argue he's an 'anti-globalization isolationist blowhard' if his plan gets the USA a free trade agreement with the world one country at a time. Trump is gonna have to delegate tariff negotiations now.

But he genuinely misdirected me with his trolling on this one. I genuinely thought he wanted to collapse the economy and make families who rely on imported sweatshop clothing pay 50% more.

Still would have been less provocative had Trump included Russia and Belarus. I'm sure if Hungary wasn't EU they'd be on the exempt list too. And we're fine with Russia charging us 15%? Got all the NATO countries but not the adversaries of NATO?

So now detractors must focus on the message sent by that, rather than his preliminary talking point for trade negotiations.

"The current administration values murderous dictators above democratically elected EU and NATO allies."

Fuck Russia.

I DEMAND RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON TRUMP'S MACHIAVELLIAN HEROS AS WELL.

[UltraBudgie]

Still thinking there's got to be a push to lower interest rates, at least temporarily.

1/4 of the national debt is coming due this year, most of it at far more favourable interest rates than we have currently.

The USA is currently paying about $1 trillion per year in interest alone.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) may lower interest rates for several reasons, primarily aimed at stimulating economic growth. Here are some key factors that could lead to a rate cut:

Economic Slowdown: If the economy shows signs of slowing down, such as declining GDP growth, rising unemployment, or reduced consumer spending, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment.

Low Inflation: If inflation rates fall below the Fed's target (typically around 2%), the central bank may reduce interest rates to stimulate demand and push inflation back toward the target level.

Financial Market Instability: In times of financial crisis or significant market volatility, the Fed may lower rates to provide liquidity to the financial system and stabilize markets.

Global Economic Conditions: Weakness in the global economy can impact the U.S. economy. If international trade slows or other countries face economic challenges, the Fed might lower rates to mitigate these effects.

Consumer and Business Confidence: If surveys indicate that consumer and business confidence is waning, the Fed may act to lower rates to encourage spending and investment.

Unforeseen Events: Natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, or pandemics can disrupt economic activity. The Fed may respond by lowering rates to support the economy during such events.

Labor Market Conditions: If the labor market shows signs of weakness, such as rising unemployment or stagnant wage growth, the Fed may lower rates to stimulate job creation and economic activity.

The decision to lower interest rates is typically made during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, where members assess a wide range of economic indicators and conditions.

So, the question is, are we seeing manipulations to deliberately trigger any of these conditions?

As for Monday, I dunno. Market's gonna do what market's gonna do. It's impossible to tell how much speculation and gaming has been "built-in" to the current configuration and valuations. At least, for us.

[TzarChasm]

Canada seems to think sales tax on imports (tariffs) is harming American business and American consumers. Nevermind how much it costs us to export our product and conduct international trade relations.

[putnam6]

Yeah, you know what?

Just freaking once, could things not work out in some way that makes all critics look simplistic and unable to see the big picture?

It's kinda hard to argue he's an 'anti-globalization isolationist blowhard' if his plan gets the USA a free trade agreement with the world one country at a time. Trump is gonna have to delegate tariff negotiations now.

But he genuinely misdirected me with his trolling on this one. I genuinely thought he wanted to collapse the economy and make families who rely on imported sweatshop clothing pay 50% more.

Still would have been less provocative had Trump included Russia and Belarus. I'm sure if Hungary wasn't EU they'd be on the exempt list too. And we're fine with Russia charging us 15%? Got all the NATO countries but not the adversaries of NATO?

So now detractors must focus on the message sent by that, rather than his preliminary talking point for trade negotiations.

"The current administration values murderous dictators above democratically elected EU and NATO allies."

Fuck Russia.

I DEMAND RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON TRUMP'S MACHIAVELLIAN HEROS AS WELL.

You catch more flies with honey than a stick, he is trying to get peace talks going if there are no peace moves forward he can always add sanctions and or tariffs later but thats not necessarily a let's talk peace move at the moment

that's my big fat Trump-defending rationalization...

relatively our trade deficit is tiny with Russia(due to sanctions) Belarus, and Hungary

At the current numbers, it would be a symbolic gesture. The CURRENT trade deficit is about 11 billion in total for Russia, Belarus and Hungary combined

 the US trade deficit with the EU and UK  246 billion

As of April 6, 2025, the U.S. trade deficit with the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) collectively can be calculated using the most recent full-year data for 2024 and partial 2025 figures available up to February.
For 2024:

• The U.S. goods trade deficit with the European Union was $235.6 billion. This reflects exports of $370.2 billion and imports of $605.8 billion.
  
• The U.S. goods trade deficit with the United Kingdom was $11.9 billion, with exports at $77.8 billion and imports at $65.9 billion, resulting in a surplus for goods alone. However, when including services, the total trade balance shifts to a deficit due to a larger services surplus not fully offsetting goods imports in other calculations. For consistency with goods-focused deficits, we note the BEA reports often aggregate totals differently, but here we use the goods deficit context.
  

As of April 6, 2025, here’s the latest available data on the U.S. trade deficits with Russia, Hungary, and Belarus, based on full-year 2024 figures and partial 2025 data up to February:

• Russia: In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit with Russia was $2.5 billion. U.S. exports to Russia totaled $526.1 million, while imports from Russia were $3.0 billion, reflecting a significant drop from pre-sanction levels (e.g., $23 billion deficit in 2021). For 2025, year-to-date data through February isn’t fully detailed by country, but the overall U.S. trade deficit trend suggests this gap persists, albeit reduced due to sanctions limiting trade volume.
  
• Hungary: In 2024, the U.S. had a goods trade deficit with Hungary of approximately $8.8 billion. Exports to Hungary were $2.2 billion, while imports reached $11.0 billion, driven largely by machinery and electronics. No specific 2025 data for Hungary is isolated yet, but the U.S. total goods deficit increased to $147.0 billion in February 2025, indicating continued pressure from trading partners like Hungary.
  
• Belarus: In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with Belarus was much smaller, at about $10.61 million. Exports were $10.6 million, and imports were $21.21 million. This figure aligns with posts on X and other sources noting a roughly $30 million deficit, though exact numbers vary slightly. For 2025, Belarus trade remains minimal due to sanctions, with no significant shift reported through February.
  

https://x.com/i/grok/share/UJG2MmyesOg01xgfr3Y5CwrTv

https://x.com/i/grok/share/WMzpo1pZt8XfLhRK3G8ePYHOg

[putnam6]

Still thinking there's got to be a push to lower interest rates, at least temporarily.

1/4 of the national debt is coming due this year, most of it at far more favourable interest rates than we have currently.

The USA is currently paying about $1 trillion per year in interest alone.


So, the question is, are we seeing manipulations to deliberately trigger any of these conditions?

As for Monday, I dunno. Market's gonna do what market's gonna do. It's impossible to tell how much speculation and gaming has been "built-in" to the current configuration and valuations. At least, for us.

I appreciate the input Im asking because I dunno either I have no clue...

Ive read some speculators suggesting the same whereas they can refinance the debt at a lower rate

[putnam6]

[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...erAt3x.jpg]

Canada seems to think sales tax on imports (tariffs) is harming American business and American consumers. Nevermind how much it costs us to export our product and conduct international trade relations.

Ugh, yes every company Ive worked for of any size usually maintained warehouses in each other country because of taxes, other costs, and time-sensitive shipping.  It's a big hairy pain in the ass..,

[putnam6]

Here's a thread on X.com on where this may be heading

Is Jennings wrong? 
 

 
 
[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/186...normal.jpg]
The Vigilant Fox 

@VigilantFox
NEW: Scott Jennings just blew a hole in the Democrats’ tariff outrage—exposing the economic hypocrisy they don’t want you to see. While the Left panics over Trump’s tariffs, Jennings points out something they’ve conveniently forgotten: they’ve spent years demanding higher corporate taxes. And what are tariffs? A tax on corporate activity.
@ScottJenningsKY
exposed their double standard in one fell swoop: “I do find it interesting in this conversation, though, about Democrats finding their, you know, free market bonafides all of a sudden.” “These are the same party that's been arguing that corporations need to pay higher taxes.” “Effectively, a tariff is just a tax on corporate activity. That's what it is. And Democrats for years have argued for higher corporate tax rates. And now they're arguing against effectively a tax on corporate activity.” Then Jennings pitched the genius play that Trump should make next: “I think if I were Donald Trump, I might next week say, you know what, I'll meet you—I’ll meet you on this.” “Let's slash the corporate tax rate in half and it will mitigate. It will mitigate your concerns about the tariffs.” And that’s when he dropped the mic: “I bet you you wouldn't find one Democrat who would agree to it, even though it would be an amazing idea.”

[rickymouse]

The strange thing is that Trump is doing more to slow Climate Change with his Tarriffs than Biden or Europe ever did.  With prices jumping up, people will not be buying so much junk they do not really need anymore, especially from low cost countries like China.  China reducing production will definitely lower emissions, same with all countries. 

We need to start making products to last, then we can pay more for them because the cost for year will be any higher.  Also, seems like so many people are buying things on credit cards they do not need, so if spending drops, people can get back on budget easier since the crazyness about buy buy buy conditioned by society will be lessened.  Since cost of food might go up, people will not waste it so much hopefully, all of this will help reduce pollution in the world.  Carbon is just a small part of the reason for climate change. 

People who have been led to believe they are rich because they made money in gambling on the stock market....which is far from real and is sort of a scam nowadays....will find out all that money they thought they made was not real....but the debt they acquired from believing they were well off is real.

I remember in school they had bachelor living...the guys version of Home Ec that the girls had.  It taught us guys to cook, even some sewing and putting on patches on pants.  It taught us to learn how to manage our money.   They got rid of Home Ec here years back in school, I guess they figured everyone would buy TV dinners or eat at fast food restaurants.  I do not know if they started to teach it again in schools here, people  knowing how to cook is bad for the economy I guess.

So will what Trump did actually accomplish more to stem global climate change than what the multi-nation climate program ever helped?  I would say that people and nations eyes will be opened if they actually look at all the data because it may show what I am saying is true.

[putnam6]

The strange thing is that Trump is doing more to slow Climate Change with his Tarriffs than Biden or Europe ever did.  With prices jumping up, people will not be buying so much junk they do not really need anymore, especially from low cost countries like China.  China reducing production will definitely lower emissions, same with all countries. 

We need to start making products to last, then we can pay more for them because the cost for year will be any higher.  Also, seems like so many people are buying things on credit cards they do not need, so if spending drops, people can get back on budget easier since the crazyness about buy buy buy conditioned by society will be lessened.  Since cost of food might go up, people will not waste it so much hopefully, all of this will help reduce pollution in the world.  Carbon is just a small part of the reason for climate change. 

People who have been led to believe they are rich because they made money in gambling on the stock market....which is far from real and is sort of a scam nowadays....will find out all that money they thought they made was not real....but the debt they acquired from believing they were well off is real.

I remember in school they had bachelor living...the guys version of Home Ec that the girls had.  It taught us guys to cook, even some sewing and putting on patches on pants.  It taught us to learn how to manage our money.   They got rid of Home Ec here years back in school, I guess they figured everyone would buy TV dinners or eat at fast food restaurants.  I do not know if they started to teach it again in schools here, people  knowing how to cook is bad for the economy I guess.

So will what Trump did actually accomplish more to stem global climate change than what the multi-nation climate program ever helped?  I would say that people and nations eyes will be opened if they actually look at all the data because it may show what I am saying is true.

Ive seen more than one supposed analyst say we won't know all the benefits or consequences because it's rarely if ever been done in this scope of size. 

I think it is sometimes hard to fathom how much Americans consume

from Grok How many countries is its top importer the US ironically its 53 

https://x.com/i/grok/share/jszzDZj5g5khUKjILQjqYlkzI

As of the latest comprehensive trade data, primarily from 2023 and early 2025 trends, the United States is the top importer (i.e., the leading destination for exports) for 53 countries and territories worldwide. This figure is derived from analyzing global trade statistics, where the U.S. consistently ranks as the primary export market for these nations based on goods trade value.
The U.S. is the world's largest goods importer, with $3.2 trillion in imports in 2023, and its economic size and consumer demand make it a critical market for many countries. Key examples include:

• Canada: The U.S. accounts for 75% of its exports ($356.5 billion in 2022, per USTR data).
  
• Mexico: Over 78% of its exports go to the U.S. ($475 billion in 2023, per USAFacts).
  
• Japan: The U.S. is the top destination, taking 19% of its exports ($80.2 billion in 2022).
  
• Smaller nations like Bahamas, Honduras, and Jamaica also send over 50% of their exports to the U.S., often due to proximity and trade agreements like USMCA.
  

The count of 53 comes from cross-referencing trade partner data (e.g., U.S. Census Bureau, WTO, and OEC) where the U.S. is explicitly the largest single-country export destination. This includes North American neighbors, Caribbean states, and some Asian and European countries with significant U.S.-focused trade (e.g., Vietnam at 28% of its exports, or $114 billion in 2023). The EU as a bloc sometimes outranks the U.S. for certain European nations (e.g., Germany), but as a single country, the U.S. holds the top spot for these 53.
This number could shift slightly with 2025 data as new tariffs and trade policies evolve, but as of April 6, 2025, 53 is the most accurate count based on available evidence.