British journalist Sami Hamdi detained by US authorities

[cherokeetroy]

Why would anybody watch Fox or any mainstream media and believe ANY article or op-ed? All articles and news stories need to be vetted and analysed. Especially the financial news...

Still, it's hard to ignore historical inflation figures; it's basic maths.....

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/in...ion-rates/


[Image: https://denyignorance.com/uploader/image...32-736.jpg]

It isn't a Fox News report, it's from Moody's Analytics 




Scott Bessent on CNN this morning 


Link

[putnam6]

It isn't a Fox News report, it's from Moody's Analytics 

[Image: https://i.imgur.com/t0liuG7.jpeg]


Scott Bessent on CNN this morning 

[Image: https://i.imgur.com/gQ89HEh.jpeg]
Link

[Image: https://i.imgur.com/ASRCotU.jpeg]

All I Im suggesting is that, for my industry sector, we're doing well, and the map shows why I Im optimistic.

Only 3 states in our 10-state territory are red or yellow, 7 are in green, aka expansion

One area can be in the shitter while another is just fine temporarily.

I know it can change on a dime, but we were busy all weekend long placing stock orders for clients, many of them unsolicited 

living the dream...

[cherokeetroy]

All I Im suggesting is that, for my industry sector, we're doing well, and the map shows why I Im optimistic.

Only 3 states in our 10-state territory are red or yellow, 7 are in green, aka expansion

One area can be in the shitter while another is just fine temporarily.

I know it can change on a dime, but we were busy all weekend long placing stock orders for clients, many of them unsolicited 

living the dream...

That's wonderful 

My post was in response to the claim we're not in a recession or anywhere near a recession
That's not accurate 


The Fed’s ending QT, Treasury’s running near trillion dollar cash balances and funding markets are showing signs of strain. The global financial machine has reached a point where even small shocks ripple everywhere.  And now we're advancing into QE --- "emergency liquidity". Banks are in crisis mode. We are so close to something breaking...Bessent stated that we are in a "transition period". 

I don't think people fully comprehend what he means by that

[putnam6]

That's wonderful 

My post was in response to the claim we're not in a recession or anywhere near a recession
That's not accurate 


The Fed’s ending QT, Treasury’s running near trillion dollar cash balances and funding markets are showing signs of strain. The global financial machine has reached a point where even small shocks ripple everywhere.  And now we're advancing into QE --- "emergency liquidity". Banks are in crisis mode. We are so close to something breaking...Bessent stated that we are in a "transition period". 

I don't think people fully comprehend what he means by that

I know I don't, it's why I read and listen to your posts

Dammit Jim,

I'm a sales rep, not an economist..

With what Bessent is saying now, he is more cautious than he was earlier for sure 
 

Current Economic Snapshot
As of November 2025, the U.S. economy is not in a recession by official measures from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which defines one as a significant, widespread decline in activity lasting more than a few months. GDP grew 2.83% year-over-year in Q2 2025, though Q1 saw a slight contraction of -0.3% (partly skewed by methodological factors like gold imports). The S&P 500 is near all-time highs at around 685, buoyed by AI investments, and the unemployment rate stands at 4.2%—elevated from 3.7% a year ago but still within historical norms for non-recessionary periods. However, risks are mounting, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown rather than outright collapse.
 
Key Recession Indicators
Economists track several signals to gauge recession risk. Here's a summary of the latest data:

 
Indicator
Current Status (as of Oct/Nov 2025)
Recession Threshold
Implication
Unemployment Rate
4.2% (up from 3.7% YoY)
Sharp rise (>0.5% in 3-month avg per Sahm Rule)
Sahm Rule triggered briefly in 2024 but eased; now at 0.50 pp, signaling caution but not alarm. Expected to hit 4.5-4.6% by mid-2026.
 
GDP Growth
Q2: +2.83% YoY; Q1: -0.3%
Two consecutive negative quarters
No technical recession yet; Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasts +2.5% for Q3. Without AI/data center spending, H1 growth would be near zero (+0.1%).
 
Yield Curve
+0.55% (10Y-2Y spread)
Inverted (<0%) for 6+
months
 
Normalized from 2024 inversion; low signal (12% recession odds per JP Morgan model excluding curve).
Consumer Confidence
Plummeting (e.g., Conference Board index down in May due to tariffs)
Sustained drop below 80
High pessimism on inflation/jobs; "vibes" souring, but spending resilient (+1.6% Q2).
Industrial Production/Freight
Manufacturing down 33K jobs Jan-Aug; freight volumes -30% YoY
Contraction in multiple sectors
Sector-specific weakness (e.g., goods economy in "recession"); 22 states near/at downturn per Moody's.
Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
1.37 (total business, Jul 2025)
>1.5 (spike signals oversupply)
 
Stable/low; no broad buildup yet.
These metrics show resilience in services and tech/AI, but vulnerabilities in manufacturing, housing, and trade-exposed sectors. The "K-shaped" recovery persists: AI/tech booms while freight/manufacturing slumps.
 
Recession Probability Forecasts
Forecasters are divided, with odds rising from early 2025 lows (10-20%) due to policy shocks. Averages hover at 30-40% for a 2025-2026 downturn—higher than the historical baseline of 15% but not a consensus. Here's a roundup:
Source
Recession Odds (Next 12 Months)
Key Rationale
2025 GDP Forecast
J.P. Morgan
40% (down from 60%)
Tariff de-escalation helps, but fiscal tightening risks 0.25% H2 growth.
1.7%
Goldman Sachs
45% (up from 35%)
Trade war escalation; inflation to 3%+.
1.3%
CNBC Fed Survey
36% (up from 23%)
Tariffs top threat; growth slowdown.
1.7%
Oxford Economics
35%
Uncertainty delays investment; no base-case recession.
N/A
Statista/YCharts
33.6% (Nov 2025)
Model-based projection.
N/A
IMF
40% (up from 25%)
Global trade tensions; US growth cut to 1.8%.
1.8%
Bankrate Survey
Low (elevated but <30%)
Job market cooling to 49K/month adds; Fed cuts to cushion.
N/A
JP Morgan Private (alt model)
12-20%
Yield curve unreliable; baseline no recession.
2.1%
Prediction markets like Polymarket/Kalshi align at ~40%. Optimists (e.g., Fed's Lisa Cook) cite strong 2024 momentum; pessimists (e.g., Moody's Mark Zandi) warn of a "self-reinforcing cycle" from layoffs and price hikes.
Major Risks and Drivers

• Tariffs & Trade War: Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs (up 15 pp avg) have slashed growth forecasts by 80 bps since March. Retaliation from China/EU could add 0.5-1% to inflation, hitting consumers (e.g., durable goods spending down). Uncertainty alone delays business plans.
  
• Labor Market Cooling: Job growth slowed to 151K/month (worst Feb since 2019); tech layoffs >100K YTD (Amazon, Meta, etc.). Immigration curbs shrink workforce.
  
• Inflation & Fed Response: Core PCE at mid-2%; tariffs could push to 3%+. Fed expected to cut 75-100 bps in 2025, but lags from 2024 highs linger.
  
• Sectoral Pain: Housing in recession (prices +2.3%, but starts down); commercial real estate delinquency >10% (worst since 2008). 22 states (e.g., agriculture/manufacturing-heavy) at brink.
  
• Upside Factors: AI/infrastructure investment (+32% in some areas); fiscal easing in 2026 could rebound growth to 2.1%.
  

Public sentiment on X echoes this: Posts highlight freight recession, state-level woes, and tariff fears, with some calling it a "Trump recession" amid 2025's volatility. Others note no imminent NBER call.

Are We Close?
Yes, closer than at the start of 2025—odds have doubled amid trade shocks and softening jobs—but not inevitable. The economy is in a "soft landing" wobble, with 1.5-2% growth likely if tariffs moderate. A shock (e.g., oil spike from Middle East tensions) could tip it over. Monitor November jobs data and Q4 GDP for clearer signals. For households/businesses: Build cash buffers, diversify from trade-sensitive sectors, and eye Fed cuts for relief. This isn't 2008, but vigilance is key.

[CriticalStinker]

#1 Im just talking here, living the dream

But we are much better off, and while it might be a function of how shitty things were during COVID. Thats just my small reality, we have recently got back to living past the monthly 30-day window.

Life as an independent contractor can be a bit of a gamble, but we are set up for a good run, and our industry has always been hypersensitive economically. 

Hurricane Katrina set us back 2 years easily....


But currently, the manufacturer, supplier, and retailer are optimistic, we have 60 days left in our 2025 cycle, and only one supplier hasn't passed 2023-2024 numbers, and they are so close it shouldn't be a problem, and that was with a tariff-sensitive industry since APRIL.

Honestly, I've been killing it since 2019. Saw what was happening in China on 4chan and shorted every airline and rotated to oil too.

Professionally, I've been more blessed than I should have been. Believe it or not, I often buck the system at work just like I comment online. Oddly enough, I was lucky enough to get in at a startup level for a tech company who sells and implements critical infrastructure for data centers, and similar environments. 

That said, my experience is not the norm, and I'm lucky my interest in current events has parlayed into my investing. I've made money under Trump 1, Biden, and Trump 2. Political commentator me disagrees with each of their admins, and detests their policy. Investor me finds them oddly predictable. 

There is a whole group of people cashing out on all of this chaos, from both parties (investors and politicians holding majority).

We're betting the whole ass house on AI right now though. That's not purely political, I'd say it's more of market forces at the moment. Nvidia is 16% of US GDP, and has a higher market cap than the GDP's of all nations except the US and China. It's either a bubble, that pops bringing down the market for years to come. Or, it succeeds as the founders predicted, and it replaces jobs at a rate higher than the industrial revolution. 

Some may see that as doom porn, but I don't think a singular company has gotten so much market cap proportionally to the whole global economy as now. If you look at where they were at just 5 years ago, it's really funny if you think about it. They were just a GPU manufacturer which only had sales to a gaming enthusiast market. This isn't a conspiratorial thought at the moment, it's how a lot of the investing community view the current environment.

[putnam6]

Honestly, I've been killing it since 2019. Saw what was happening in China on 4chan and shorted every airline and rotated to oil too.

Professionally, I've been more blessed than I should have been. Believe it or not, I often buck the system at work just like I comment online. Oddly enough, I was lucky enough to get in at a startup level for a tech company who sells and implements critical infrastructure for data centers, and similar environments. 

That said, my experience is not the norm, and I'm lucky my interest in current events has parlayed into my investing. I've made money under Trump 1, Biden, and Trump 2. Political commentator me disagrees with each of their admins, and detests their policy. Investor me finds them oddly predictable. 

There is a whole group of people cashing out on all of this chaos, from both parties (investors and politicians holding majority).

We're betting the whole ass house on AI right now though. That's not purely political, I'd say it's more of market forces at the moment. Nvidia is 16% of US GDP, and has a higher market cap than the GDP's of all nations except the US and China. It's either a bubble, that pops bringing down the market for years to come. Or, it succeeds as the founders predicted, and it replaces jobs at a rate higher than the industrial revolution. 

Some may see that as doom porn, but I don't think a singular company has gotten so much market cap proportionally to the whole global economy as now. If you look at where they were at just 5 years ago, it's really funny if you think about it. They were just a GPU manufacturer which only had sales to a gaming enthusiast market. This isn't a conspiratorial thought at the moment, it's how a lot of the investing community view the current environment.

Thats good to hear, seriously, hell, I had a good run, we were hit by professional and personal family issues, these last 10 years on top of riots, COVID, and economy, boom boom boom it all snowballed 

I always put my money back in the business, and it worked fine till COVID. I probably should have switched into another profession and would have if I were 10 years younger, and it was just me.