EL NIÑO IS COMING!

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/weather/s...no-climate

30 years later and this is still my first thought...




With that out of the way, this is apparently a Super-El Niño on par with '83 or '97.  And like in those years it will be seen as "an unusually strong El Niño," because we dont do climate change anymore.. 

Weather-wise, it means Seattle and Portland get heat domes and dry weather, and the Southwest and California gets hit with with tropical remnants more often. Flooding potential is highlighted. 

Plus we've been getting a lot of weird tropical storm impacts in recent years, like in '22 and '23, and those were years when the water was 68-73 degrees. 

This year has a deeper warm surface layer, that is 3 to 4 degrees Celsius or 6 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and our coastal waters being in the high 70s or even pushing a record at 80° is possible.

So if there was ever a year for California to get its landfalling hurricane or tropical storm (last in 1858 and 1939) its 2026! Fngrs crssd! 

I'm actually excited about the prospect. I love our version of tropical weather, because it isn't anything recognizable as a tropical cyclone.

Our "tropical weather" always leaves you feeling ripped off that the currents are coming from the wrong direction.  You feel slighted by the coriolis effect. Which is admittedly perverse, but its kinda like when it snows in the low desert. Its never that bad when it happens, and everyone gets an experience from it.  

Unless you live in a low-lying area, and rain + flash flooding gets you, then your experience sucks.

[guyfriday]

It won't be a bad thing for the most part, I mean I have learned to block out climate change yappers, but the issue that isn't getting discussed is winter for '26-'27 and how that will look like. 

So I'll be enjoying the weather, for the most part, this year. I will also be preparing for winter just a little bit sooner than last year too.

[IdeomotorPrisoner]

That too. The Atlantic snow.  Its warmer, but the increase in precipitation makes more random snow storms following a 60 degree day...

Also less Atlantic hurricanes, but still a potential that the few that form are bad. Like Andrew in '92. 

It has so much talk right now I'm guessing its almost destined to be an anticlimactic dud, like the last "super-event" in 14-15.. which didnt do much of anything.

[guyfriday]

let's not forget about the Atlantic Ocean.
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-atlantic-c...aster.html

The AMOC is a major system of Atlantic Ocean currents that helps regulate climate by transporting heat from the tropics toward the North Atlantic. It is often likened to a conveyor belt because it carries warm water north, where it cools and sinks before flowing back south deep underwater.
While it was already known to be weakening, most climate models disagree on the exact magnitude of the decline, but generally point to a one-third reduction by 2100. However, this new study puts the figure at a much more substantial 51%.
New approachResearchers from France reached this conclusion after combining real-world data with the latest CMIP6 climate models. This is a large international collection of climate models from different groups that simulate past, present and future climate changes.
Where this study differed from many previous ones is that it looked at more than one aspect of ocean observations. It used an approach called ridge-regularized linear regression to study several factors at once, such as temperatures in the North Atlantic and salt levels in the South Atlantic.
To see if this tool was reliable, the research team tested it on the climate models they already had. They would pick one model, hide its future prediction and ask the tool to guess what the prediction was based only on the data from the other models. They did this for each model and found it was the most effective way to predict future scenarios.
Underestimating the threatThis new approach found that previous models were underestimating the danger, as the team noted in their paper. "Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone." The correction leads to a best estimate of about a 51% decline by 2100. "This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future adaptation strategies."
Therefore, if the researchers are right, the system may be closer to a critical threshold than some models indicate. That could have implications for how future climate risks are assessed and how we prepare for them.

Sadly the AMOC is slowing down and has been for a while now. This trend will lead to warmer waters in the Gulf, which will lead to stronger storms and Hurricanes in the region. This slowing of the AMOC also can lead to colder wetter winters in the northern regions with super-storms like Sandy happening more often.

I know this is an old thread (it's two years old) but at the end of it I addressed the issue of the slowing AMOC,
https://denyignorance.com/Thread-Climate...56#pid4556

I mean it's not like we didn't get a heads up, nor that we can't go back and look at weather trends for the last 100-200 years. It's good that you brought this up so that the "Climate Fear Factor" can get headed off.

[ANNEE]

In California earthquakes and El Nino is normal expectancy.  Each year it's claimed to be "Bigger and Badder" -- but I haven't really noticed any major difference.

At over 3000 feet elevation -- sitting on top of a mountain -- with no wind break -- we'll see how it goes.

[quintessentone]

In California earthquakes and El Nino is normal expectancy.  Each year it's claimed to be "Bigger and Badder" -- but I haven't really noticed any major difference.

At over 3000 feet elevation -- sitting on top of a mountain -- with no wind break -- we'll see how it goes.

Won't the mountain act as a windbreak to some extent?

[DBCowboy]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/weather/s...no-climate

30 years later and this is still my first thought...

[Video: https://youtu.be/t_fGjrZfDt4?si=L6xb7XwEMG4vubZw]

With that out of the way, this is apparently a Super-El Niño on par with '83 or '97.  And like in those years it will be seen as "an unusually strong El Niño," because we dont do climate change anymore.. 

Weather-wise, it means Seattle and Portland get heat domes and dry weather, and the Southwest and California gets hit with with tropical remnants more often. Flooding potential is highlighted. 

Plus we've been getting a lot of weird tropical storm impacts in recent years, like in '22 and '23, and those were years when the water was 68-73 degrees. 

This year has a deeper warm surface layer, that is 3 to 4 degrees Celsius or 6 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and our coastal waters being in the high 70s or even pushing a record at 80° is possible.

So if there was ever a year for California to get its landfalling hurricane or tropical storm (last in 1858 and 1939) its 2026! Fngrs crssd! 

I'm actually excited about the prospect. I love our version of tropical weather, because it isn't anything recognizable as a tropical cyclone.

Our "tropical weather" always leaves you feeling ripped off that the currents are coming from the wrong direction.  You feel slighted by the coriolis effect. Which is admittedly perverse, but its kinda like when it snows in the low desert. Its never that bad when it happens, and everyone gets an experience from it.  

Unless you live in a low-lying area, and rain + flash flooding gets you, then your experience sucks.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

weather.

 

  ​

Maybe if they increase taxes, the weather will change.

  ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​ ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​

[BeyondKnowledge]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

weather.

 

  ​

Maybe if they increase taxes, the weather will change.

  ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​ ​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​

No, increasing taxes is only the first step. Human activity must be eliminated. That will fix it.

[Blackfingers]

Weather patterns are always cyclical through history.

[DBCowboy]

No, increasing taxes is only the first step. Human activity must be eliminated. That will fix it.

Weather was created as a white mans way to control the masses.

Before America, there was no weather, only freedom from the white man who was probably Trump.

Amen.