08-02-2024, 08:34 PM
This post was last modified 08-02-2024, 08:39 PM by VulcanWerks.
Threads like this are interesting learning for someone like myself who works in asset management.
It’s also disheartening because asset management is a complicated business with many, many factors influencing market behavior - there are factors like I’ll list below that if you don’t know what it means then you have to revert back to thoughts on the Fed or other more hyperbolic (and often wrong or incomplete) rationale.
In my professional opinion, the last few weeks of negative price action were all caused by:
- op-ex
- dealer gamma
- HF profit taking
- Head-fake (and silly) style rotation to R2k that faded immediately and got smoked further today.
The fiscal bazooka is loaded, Fed can ignite the economy whenever they’d like, plenty of liquidity, $6tn in MMFs that will need to go somewhere as yields fall, no way we get a recession between now and September, earnings have not been bad at all, literally zero unknown quantities on the political front, very little retail capitulation, etc.
Be greedy when others are fearful. If you’re freaking out, you’re missing out, IMO. That doesn’t constitute advice, however, as I’m sure many people who read this have very different investment situations. That said, I hold the opinion (and positioning in my portfolio) that this bull market is far from over.
It’s also disheartening because asset management is a complicated business with many, many factors influencing market behavior - there are factors like I’ll list below that if you don’t know what it means then you have to revert back to thoughts on the Fed or other more hyperbolic (and often wrong or incomplete) rationale.
In my professional opinion, the last few weeks of negative price action were all caused by:
- op-ex
- dealer gamma
- HF profit taking
- Head-fake (and silly) style rotation to R2k that faded immediately and got smoked further today.
The fiscal bazooka is loaded, Fed can ignite the economy whenever they’d like, plenty of liquidity, $6tn in MMFs that will need to go somewhere as yields fall, no way we get a recession between now and September, earnings have not been bad at all, literally zero unknown quantities on the political front, very little retail capitulation, etc.
Be greedy when others are fearful. If you’re freaking out, you’re missing out, IMO. That doesn’t constitute advice, however, as I’m sure many people who read this have very different investment situations. That said, I hold the opinion (and positioning in my portfolio) that this bull market is far from over.
