Dow loses more than 700 points as recession fears dent Wall Street sentiment: Live up

[Lysergic]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/stock-ma...dates.html
“The markets only get spooked by an unexpected Fed move when they believe the Fed sees or is sniffing out something that the markets haven’t caught on to,” BMO Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Yung-Yu Ma said. “In this case, it’s the markets that have caught on to something that the Fed is missing.”


To my rich frens who worry about this stuff;

Buy more ammo or nah?

Will we have a recession, will it be Obamalicious? 

I thought perfectly functioning president Biden created more jobs in the history of history.

[Maxmars]

Updated Fri, Aug 2 20244:35 PM EDT

Dow closes down 600 points, Nasdaq enters correction after weak jobs report
(Not a complaint, just an update....)

But the "Job's report" (in my opinion) which is hinted as a potential reason for the drop, is the singled least reliably reported stat of all time... (perhaps en par with "climate reporting.")

The politically-appointed bureau has the data... but they always change and retract and correct their assessments which very frequently prove to be "politically-motivated marketing", and I suspect might actually manufacture, manipulate, and contrive to misinform... as if they have no standards.

When they publish a report, as they have, it might be immensely "optimistic" or "pessimistic" depending on the "political utility" of the 'appearance' (their recent paradigm.)

Maybe the "market" (sic) does know something the Fed appears to be either "going along with" or "falling for."

[guyfriday]

oh I'm sure this will be called a "Correction" and any fearmongering is Trumps fault. 

This was two days ago (From this posting so don't come back here in a decade and try and call me out).
The Fed Suggested That Rate Cuts Could Come Soon - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their July meeting, as economists had expected, and hinted that recent progress in lowering inflation could enable them to cut interest rates soon.

• The Fed decided on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at about 5.3 percent — a two-decade high where they have remained for a year now.
  
• Notably, though, officials also tweaked their post-meeting policy statement to call price increases only “somewhat elevated” and to underscore that officials are attentive not just to the risk of lingering inflation but also to the threat of a job market slowdown.
  
• Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said at a news conference that a rate cut “could be on the table” at its next meeting on Sept. 18.

It's going to be one of those "Wait till after the election" thing so that high interest rates can be maintained so that the Fed can finish paying off their new building complex in DC. 

[VulcanWerks]

Threads like this are interesting learning for someone like myself who works in asset management.

It’s also disheartening because asset management is a complicated business with many, many factors influencing market behavior - there are factors like I’ll list below that if you don’t know what it means then you have to revert back to thoughts on the Fed or other more hyperbolic (and often wrong or incomplete) rationale.

In my professional opinion, the last few weeks of negative price action were all caused by:

- op-ex
- dealer gamma
- HF profit taking
- Head-fake (and silly) style rotation to R2k that faded immediately and got smoked further today.

The fiscal bazooka is loaded, Fed can ignite the economy whenever they’d like, plenty of liquidity, $6tn in MMFs that will need to go somewhere as yields fall, no way we get a recession between now and September, earnings have not been bad at all, literally zero unknown quantities on the political front, very little retail capitulation, etc.

Be greedy when others are fearful. If you’re freaking out, you’re missing out, IMO. That doesn’t constitute advice, however, as I’m sure many people who read this have very different investment situations. That said, I hold the opinion (and positioning in my portfolio) that this bull market is far from over.