06-05-2024, 11:22 AM
(06-04-2024, 07:26 PM)Maxmars Wrote: I have always been a sort of closet dissenter about both the Fermi, and Drake equations. It's not that I disagree with their approach to 'modeling' reality. It's just that - as modern notions have recently proven - you can't expect to be able to attribute all the details of reality within your model. There are a lot of presumptions, which seem all perfectly reasonable, but that does not mean they include everything. Everything is that 'thing' which we don't know.
So new information, new analyses, and new thought processes should be expected to, if not supersede the old model, at least "inform it."
The article was good, but I failed to detect "what" they "changed" which makes them opine the formula might have been wrong. And the title kind of disappointed me too. In the days of those scientists, "formulas: and "equations" were not haphazardly selected to stand out. This was a solid piece of mathematical work by a thinker of great reputation.
Nevertheless, it is a model only. Capable only of considering what we can conceive to quantify. Those things are always to be defeated by what we don't know.
I think it extremely unlikely that "we are alone." You don't "need" to be a technologically "communicative" species to exist. Consider more primitive life, consider life which may employ technologies which we can't detect or recognize? There will be life, somewhere.
The Drake Equation is a mathematical approach in estimating the likelihood of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. Of course this estimation is based upon assumptions and our understanding of physics. The new paper has reduced the lower and upper limits in comparison to what Drake gave back in the 60s. The equation is a probabilistic argument and an attempt to qualify the current number of extraterrestrial civilizations that are intelligent enough to be able to communicate.
But in terms of life in our universe and starting from our galaxy that contain at least 100 billion stars and at least as many planets, I think anyone can answer the question if like exists in our galaxy. You don't need to go that far by the way. Europa the moon of Jupiter contains at least twice as much water as here on Earth. Very likely it also supports some kind of life. Likewise for Enceladus, the moon of Saturn. Or even Mars and Venus that could still have microbial life.
